Wednesday, November 25, 2009

New Basketball statistic?

I've never seen this stat used before by espn or anyone... I refer to this as: "Points-per-PT Attempted."


Total Points scored
_________________

Total Points attempted
[2pt FGA (x2) +3ptAtt (x3) + FT attempts (x1)]


I calculated this statistic for some NBA players from the 2008-09 NBA season. Here is how it ended up:


Shaq ------------------------ 60.6 %
Pau Gasol -------------------60.4 %
Andrew Bynum -------------58.6 %
Dwyane Wade -------------- 52.7 %
LeBron James -------------- 52.7 %
Kobe Bryant ----------------50.9 %
Artest ----------------------- 43.4 %


That's just a small pool. But I like this statistic more than I do the traditional "FG%"
All "FG%" is, is:



2pt FGM + 3pt FGM
_______________

2pt FGA + 3pt FGA


It doesn't take Free Throws into account at all. It does not benefit slashers who get to the FT line for easy points. Nor does it benefit 3 point shooters (who are attempting more points per shot attempt than most banger/C/PF players are taking).

My stat (pts/pts attempted) takes into account the amount of points attempted on FT (1 point apiece) and 3-point attempts (3 points apiece).


So not only does this benefit good 3 point shooters and good FT shooters, but it also punishes the prototypical "Antoine Walker" type of player. Those who miss easy free throws (i.e. Ben Wallace, Shaq, Dwight Howard, Biedrins, Odom) would be taken into account. And those players who take too many 3 point attempts (i.e. Rasheed Wallace, Jamal Crawford, Chris Duhon) would be punished for attempting too many 3PA for the relatively small amount they make by comparison.

This stat is broad yet inclusive. It directly measures scoring/shot efficiency. It takes into account 2FGM, 3FGM, FTM, FTA, 2PA, and 3PA, and the widely used FG%.

The essential difference between "FG%" and "Pts/PtAttempted" is that "pts/ptatt"incorporates FT%, 2ptFG%, and 3ptFG% into "FG%."

Points per Field Goal Attempt would be a great stat to determine scoring efficiency in terms of on-floor shot selection (without involving FTs). Or you could use "points per PA" and subtract points scored with FTs off the numerator and FTA off the bottom of the formula.


So let's say Kobe Bryant has a game where he hits 6/14 2-pointers, 2/6 3-pointers, and 8/9 FTs. His stats in each category would be as follows:

"points-per-PA" ----47%
2 pointers: 12/28
3 pointers: 6/18
1 pointers: 8/9
total points scored: 26 divided-by 55 (total points attempted)

"points-per FGA" ------90% (300% maximum possible)
2 pointers: 12 points
3 pointers: 6 points
total points scored from 2's and 3's: 18 divided-by 20 (total number of 2 and 3 pt FGA)

"points-per-PA (not inclusive of FTs)" -----39%
2 pointers: 12/28
3 pointers: 6/18
total points scored from 2's and 3's: 18 divided-by 46 (number of points attempted from 2's and 3's)

Sunday, November 15, 2009

NBA Power Rankings

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11/30/2009
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1.

The Lakers have been dominating opponents since the arrival of Pau Gasol.



2.

Jason Williams is stepping up in a big way. He did miss the game clinching FTs against Miami but he was the one who’s hot shooting single-handedly kept Orlando in the game. It’s a good thing Orlando coaxed White Chocolate out of retirement, or else right now he wouldn’t be leading the NBA in assist:turnover ratio.



3.

Kevin Garnett seems to be getting more and more aggressive offensively and on the boards day-by-day, which is a great sign for Boston.



4.

Lost 2 winnable games against LAC and at home vs MIN of all teams... but their hot shooting continues from everybody on the roster, despite occassional defensive let-downs.



5.

The Suns have been getting it done on the road for the most part so far, but however, the toughest part of their schedule is yet to come against the better teams.



6.

Shaq is day-to-day but Cleveland has been playing rather well. Even though they were surprised by the Bobcats.



7.

The Spurs have won their last 5 games, and seemed poised to make a run at the top 4 seeds in the West, despite the injury to Ginobili.



8.

ost against CLE and GSW but otherwise have won 7 of their last 9 games.



9.

ATL has had some letdowns: losing in CP3less New Orleans, getting blown out of their own building by ORL, and last night losing in Detroit... Is there such a thing as a too-balanced offense?



10.

Played great defense and have come back strong from their early season disappointment.





11.

Give the "Defensive Player of the Month" Award to Thabo Sefolosha.



12.

Last year, POR dominated Eastern teams but haven’t even gone out for their eastern conference road trip yet. POR was under .500 on the road but have done much better on the road this year. Unfortunately, the Blazers are without one of their best clutch weapon in Outlaw and they are seemingly losing every game they play against good teams.





13.

Jermaine O’Neal is still playing well, Haslem is 6th man of the year material, Chalmers has become a solid PG, and Beasley is steadily improving. The team defense has been the key so far.



14.

The defense has suffered but this team has still been able to step up and perform up to their potential... despite how low their ceiling actually is.



15.

Teams who’s first and second scoring options are both guards tend to have trouble scoring in this league. Since Kevin Martin’s injury, not only has team defense improved, but assists have gone up and unselfishness has been the key to rejuvenate the Sacramento offense.



16.

Before the SJ trade, the Bobcats were scoring under 84 points per game. Their offense is now averaging a 89 points this season, and their team defense is still holding strong with the addition of Jackson- still only allowing 88 points per game. The Bobcat are one of the big surprises of the NBA- outscoring their opponents slightly on-average. They seem to be a solid basketball team... they are playing up to their potential and are playing great defense; both of these tendencies are very typical of a Larry Brown-coached team.







17.

In the games since Michael Redd returned, Brandon Jennings has been shooting a lower percentage. The team struggled on defense in his 3 games. It will take time to reacclimate Redd into the offense and the defense once he finally does return for good.



18.

The Bulls have lost their last 4 road games, which have all been road games (LAL, Denver, Portland, Utah). Noah hasn’t had quite as strong showing against these teams. This is much likely because all are great rebounding teams with great scoring low post players. But Derrick Rose has stepped up his game in these 4 losses; shooting a higher percentage and reducing his turnovers. However, the early season shooting struggles of Salmons and Hinrich from long range are key to the team’s scoring troubles.



19.

The Clippers are playing solid basketball. Their defense is good and their team shooting percentage. It’ll be interesting to see if Blake Griffin can improve them and how much.



20.

Mike Miller has been on fire to start the season- shooting 57% for three and 58% overall. He needs the ball in his hands more often - as opposed to Arenas and Butler- who are struggling to make shots and turning the ball over too much.





21.

Their team defense has seemed to completely fall apart the past 4 games.





22.

The Pistons are a solid team on both ends except for Villanueva who is inconsistent on defense and streaky on offense. And Gordon, who is a streaky scorer as well.



23.

Marcus Thornton has take over some of the scoring load and played the passing lanes for Chris Paul, but does not make up for his passing and playmaking abilities at all.



24.

Have won 5 of their last 8 games- including one in Portland. However if you go back to Nov. 1st, they have won only 5 of their last 15.



25.

Have lost 5 out of 6 and have had a poor offensive showing in nearly every game in that timestand.



26.

Handsdown the worst defensive team in the NBA. Andris Biedrins is sorely missed.



27.

Elton Brand simply isn’t the player he was 2 years ago. And with Speights and Williams out, the Sixers may be staring down the lottery pretty soon. It’ll be a long road ahead to climb out of the hole they have dug themselves into.



28.

Have had a tough schedule but are getting pounded nightly- currently losers of 5 in a row.



29.

Managed to pull out a win in Denver, which might be the biggest upset of the NBA season when all is said and done.



30.

Frank begins and ends his career in NJ on epic streaks. Perhaps Byron Scott is the answer to the Nets’ prayers?









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11/24/2009
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1.

Clicking on all cylinders since Gasol’s return. Andrew Bynum is having an all-star caliber season. And Bryant is having an MVP-caliber season.



2.

J.R. Smith and Carmelo Anthony might just be the most athletic and best naturally scoring swingman tandem since Jordan and Pippen. Add Billups, Nene, K-Mart, and the Bird to that and you have a title contender. They just need to play consistent defense.



3.

Great win in Boston. They are the only team to have beaten the Celtics 3 times in their own building since the start of 2009. They have really stepped up their defense since Shard has returned. They could use a healthy Nelson though.



4.

Shaq should be back soon, but regardless, this team has marched right through their schedule of below average teams.



5.

KG is simply not playing like the KG we have always known. He seems hesitant to scramble for loose balls and attack the basket. This is a bad sign for Boston’s short-term title aspirations.



6.

Channing Frye has hit more 3 point field goals so far this season than he has in all of his prior season put together.



7.

Atlanta is deep and playing great ball. Bibby is out for right now but they should still hold their own. It may even help their team defense, which has been the only subpar aspect for this team as a whole so far.



8.

The Mavs are playing very well, despite missing Howard and Marion. Nowitzki has been playing out of his mind though- another early season MVP candidate.



9.

This team didn’t get off to as bad of a start as they did last season, and they nearly captured the 2nd seed last year. They are bound to be trouble, despite the average age of their roster. They have a deep team and talented, young role player stepping up and filling in voids.



10.

Have gotten back into form after their poor start. Boozer is playing great.



11.

They are on a nice winning streak, and have played most of their games on the road. But they still haven’t gotten to the tough part of their schedule yet and Travis Outlaw is still out.



12.

Scola, Battier, Ariza, Landry, and Brooks are playing great team ball, and the Rockets afloat. T-Mac has just practiced for the first time in 9 months, as well.



13.

Sefolosha is much of the reason why the Thunder are so improved from a season ago; his defense is the best among guards in the NBA.



14.

Wade is playing like an MVP, but it doesn’t always translate into Heat victories. Haslem’s return put an end to their 3-game skid and put them over a surprisingly hot Hornets team 2 nights ago.



15.

As long as the Raptors can hold their opponents to 95 points per night, they should be a 50 win team. Unfortunately they need to start allowing about 12 points less for that to happen so they are 6-8... they have some work to do.



16.

Washington has shown signs that they might be a good team- they beat Cleveland but however managed to lose their next 2 games pretty handily to Oklahoma City and San Antonio. Their defense still seems rather lousy, but this will surely be one of the best scoring teams in the NBA from here-on-out.



17.

The Bulls went from 6-4 to 6-7 after losing 3 consecutive road games to the Lakers, Nuggets, and Blazers... they will see easier games on their schedule ahead. Rose has really stepped up his game too in the 3 losses- shooting a much higher percentage and turning the ball over less often.



18.

The Bucks are playing perhaps the best defense in the NBA right now. But their offense is struggling. It’s a good thing they have an explosive player like rookie Jennings, who can light up a scoreboard and seemingly any given night. He already has the most games with 25 points or more to start his career than any other player in history besides Michael Jordan. Unfortunately, now Bogut is sidelined for a few weeks.



19.

Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva, and Ben Wallace are no substitute for Hamilton, Prince, and Rasheed Wallace. Thankfully, most of those players will be coming back for Detroit. The bad news is that they only won 37 games with those players last year.



20.

They beat the Suns. Then the Hawks. Then almost beat Miami. Not bad for not having CP3...



21.

Speights being out really hurts the Sixers on both ends of the floor. The positive side of his absence is that it will help Elton Brand shake off some of the visible rust he has gained since nearly 2 whole years ago.



22.

The Clippers managed to upset Denver, but still obviously have their struggles. Still, they seem like a much more solid and consistent team from the Clippers of the past few seasons.



23.

Don’t look now, but Memphis has won 4 out of their last 5 games. Could this possibly be a sign of things to come this season?



24.

The Pacers seemingly have fallen apart since a few dats ago when Danny Granger scorched the Knicks for 30 in a single half. He scored only 3 in the 2nd half, and the Knicks pulled an upset an Indi.



25.

The SJax trade will help give younger players more playing time. But the Warriors still aren’t very good. Though, they did manage to dictate a fast pace against Portland and pull out an upset. Nelson has definitely given up on this team though... it’s strange as to why he still has a job.



26.

Since their head-turning win streak, they have lost 4 straight to Chicago, Dallas, Houston, and lowly Memphis.



27.

They managed to score 104 in a win over Indiana, which is about 20 more points than what they usually put on the board.



28.

They received their first 2 road victories of the year in the midst of winning 2 of their last 3... but in all fairness, it was against the Pacers and the Nets.



29.

Devin Harris and Chris Douglas-Roberts have returned, but still lost to the Knicks at home.



30.

You might think that the last spot in these ranking would be reserved for the winless Nets, but the T-Wolves are losing games by an average of 14 points per game (4 more points than New Jersey loses by). And their losing streak is also at 13 (again, like New Jersey).


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11/15/2009
_______________________________________________



1.
The Celtics have lost 2 straight games (Hawks, Pacers) on back-to-back nights, but still seem to possess the most powerful roster in the NBA... at least for the moment.

2.
After a solid 1st half performance in Denver, LA's offense fell apart in the 2nd half. Bryant and their other starters were held nearly scoreless in the final 24 minutes, and it was left up to LA's unproductive bench to carry the load. Pau Gasol is looking more and more valuable to this team. With Gasol, Odom can provide a spark with the 2nd unit, and it leads to their starters getting easier scoring opportunities. The Lakers however did dismantle the 1st place Suns just prior to this defeat.

3.
The Nuggets came off looking like serious title contenders vs LA, showing great poise and defense (notably Affalo stepping into the role Dahntay Jones had last season). Also showing great depth with quality players (Andersen, Lawson, and JR Smith)coming off the bench, behind a stellar starting unit.

4.
Cleveland looked great against Orlando. They managed to do 2 things- (A) show just how much they have improved their defense, and (B) expose how Orlando's defense is suffering. Even the DPOY couldn't seem to guard Shaq without fouling him. LeBron and Mo Williams have been playing great, beating the 2 Florida franchises seemingly by themselves.

5.
The Magic are missing the presense Rashard Lewis on both ends of the floor; his length and help defense and (obviously) his ability to spread the floor by shooting the 3 ball. Ryan Anderson has been missed in this aspect as well. He and Lewis both are missing though, leaving Carter, Bass, Barnes, and Pietrus to cover the 3-4 and these players are all streaky 3-pt shooters at best. Once this team gets healthy, they will indeed be scary. But really... who would've thought just under 1 year ago that the Thunder would have an undeniably better defensive team than the Magic?

6.
After faltering to good teams in the beginning of the year at home (Nuggets, Hawks), Portland has managed to win 6 consecutive games. However, these wins were against undeniably below average teams. Still, the Blazers have to be encouraged by starting 5-1 on the road after ending 20-21 last season. Also, last season they dominated the Eastern Conference; right now Portland owns sole possession of 1st place in the MidWest (even over Denver) and they have played 9 of their first 11 games against Non-Eastern Conference teams.

7.
Amare Stoudemire is mainly listed as a PF (Frye the C), but he has been playing the middle of the lane more often than not on the defensive end. In fact, his overall defense looks to be much more consistently good these days. Run-and-gun systems can win championships, however the Suns are simply not good enough on defense as a team as they were from 2005-2007.

8.
After seeing him hold his own against Kendrick Perkins, who still says Al Horford cannot play the center position anymore (besides certain stubborn ESPN analysts)? He is having a break-out season, and seems to be the MVP of Atlanta. But while the offense is in high gear, the defense is subpar.

9.
Miami is playing great ball, despite a home loss to Cleveland. Wade is making clutch baskets and plays. He might very well be the league's true MVP after about 10 games... seeing as the Heat would have only 2 or 3 wins if it wasn't for his efforts. Jermaine O'Neal looked nearly rejuvenated, and Haslem is embracing his role in the 2nd string. Even Q-Rich has looked good this season.

10.
The Spurs beat Toronto and Dallas without TP and Duncan. Then their 2 MVPs return from sprained ankle injuries and the Spurs lose to Oklahoma City. Their former championship level defense appears only in flashes these days. It seems as though the Spurs get a much better effort from George Hill, Blair, and the rest of the 2nd unit.

11.
Josh Howard returned for 3 games and looked awful out there against a depleted Spurs team. Rick Carlisle called out the entire team's effort after that game. Josh Howard will be out until nearly New Year's.

12.
Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook are proving to be a solid core alonside Durant for Oklahoma City to build around. Thabo Sefolosha is definitely proving he is the best man-defender of all NBA guards. This team has some impressive victories, and near victories, against some good teams this season: most recently last night in San Antonio.


13.
The Jazz lost last night in Cleveland, but led with under a minute to go. It seems more than likely that this team will recovery from its disappointing start and get into the playoffs as the 7th o 8th seed.

14.
The Rockets are playing with great poise at both ends of the floor, and maintain a surprising-to-some 5-4 record. It might seem as though giving up 101 points per game is not very good defense... but that is only if you don't consider the fact that Houston plays slow-paced style ball and has gone toe-to-toe against some of the top scoring teams in the NBA thus far (including Phoenix and Golden State).

15.
When your starting lineup consists of 3 European players, a rookie, and Chris Bosh... you know your strong suit is not going to be defense. But despite occassional lapses (i.e. letting the Spurs drop 130+ without Duncan or Parker), they are making an effort to improve D, and are giving up 2 points less than what they are putting up per night.

16.
Joakim Noah deserves not only to be on the All Star Ballot for Eastern Centers, but he also deserves mention as 1 of the MVP candidates of the young season. He is easily one of the most improved players from a season ago. The Bulls owe perhaps all 5 of their victories to Noah, and he has kept them in a few others as well. Rose seems to be getting back into the grooves of the offense too. If Salmons can lift his FG% to over 40%, the Bulls will be in great shape. This team has shown great comradery since the epic playoff battle with Boston in May.

17.
Prince has only played in 3 games, yet the Pistons are giving up only 90 points by their opponents. Hamilton has only played in 1, yet the Pistons still boast a 5-4 record. This is largely in part due to the great play of Ben Gordon. Questions remain: When Rip returns, will Ben Gordon play less minutes? Or can Hamilton and BG co-exist somehow on the floor together? And also: Will Villanueva start to hit his shot consistently? Or will he continue to have long cold stretches and once in a while scorch a team for 22 points in a single quarter?

18.
Elton Brand seems to be slowly becomming a factor in Philly's daily scheme of things... but it appears doubtful that he will ever become the 20-10 menace he was before missing nearly all of last season. For now, Marreese Speights is playing great ball and is a greta candidate for the 6th Man Award.

19.
After an offseason spent with loading their backcourt with depth, the Wizards saw nearly all that depth disappear in injuries to Foye, Crittenton, Young, Mike Miller, and James (everybody except Arenas, ironically). Fortunately the Wizards decided to sign Earl Boykins to try to prevent Arenas' knees from completely giving away under the pressure of carrying the load and minutes. Andray Blatche has seen playing time increase due to the ansense of Jamison, and he has performed greatly (14, 7 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 51% shooting).

20.
Don't look now but Indiana has won 4 of their first 7 games. Dahntay Jones has given them 16 points, Hibbert has averaged a double-double, Hansbrough is averaging 10 and 4 (in a mere 14 min/gm), and Brandon Rush is coming into form. This is not to mention the fact that they have an all star in Danny Granger, and that things will only get better once Troy Murphy and Dunleavy return from injury.

21.
Brandon Jennings dropped fifty-five points (yes that's a "5" and another "5" right next to each other) last night. Granted- it was against a horrendous Golden State defense, but WOW... not bad for a rookie. Scott Skiles has this team playing defense. The future looks bright in Milwaukee... sitting with a 5-2 record, without Michael Redd suiting up for a game yet.

22.
Here's another surprise team. Jason Thompson has been astounding... averaging 15 points, 10 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, and 3 assists on a mere 1.2 turnovers per night. Here's another surprise: Kevin Martin has been out the last 4 games. Those 4 games have all been Kings' victories. Rookie Tyreke Evans has averaged 24-6-5 in these 4 games... not bad, Sactown...

23.
Their hyped rookie is out. But the Clippers have been getting a great effort from Chris Kaman. This team might very well end up in the playoff hunt.

24.
This team is an absolute wreck. Don Nelson has indirectly admitted that he has given up on this team. When you have Mikki Moore playing center and guys like Azuibuke, Maggette, and (publically disgruntled) Stephen Jackson defending the paint... it's no wonder why you are allowing an averaging of 113 points per game to be scored on you.

25.
As bad as the forementioned team is on defense, the Bobcats are probably even worse on the offensive side of the ball... averaging a shade over 82 a game.

26.
Well AI may not be in town, but they signed ex-Pacer Tinsley. Marc Gasol is having a good year; the Grizzlies young core will have plenty of time this season to develop.

27.
Gallinari has looked promising... but other than that, things look bleak for the Knicks this season. That's just how it is going to be when you give up 10 more points than you score on a daily-basis.

28.
I was not, am still am not, convinced that New Orleans will not make the Playoffs this year. They started the year off with a rather tough schedule. Now it will be a tough road ahead seeing as management decided to dump Coach Byron Scott right before their most valuable player and floor general went down with a severe-looking ankle injury. And that is a very gloomy sign of things to come for the 3-8 Hornets... how a team does in the first 10 games with a new coach is very indicitive of how they will do for the remainder of the season. And without CP3... wins will be nearly impossible to come by.

29.
Well, they almost beat the Heat yesterday until D-Wade decided to be D-Wade. But how good can a team that missed the postseason last year really be without 3 of their regular starters?

30.
This team was already bad enough when they had Al Jeff and K-Love... now niether of their regular starting frontcourt is available to play. If this team wins a game before they return, it would take divine intervention.